NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:As Northeast wildfires keep igniting, is there a drought-buster in sight?

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerhistoric drought that for weeks has showered a swath of the nation from Virginia through New England with red flag wildfire warnings shows no signs of easing soon − and it may take floods to bring the weather pattern to an end.

Adam Douty, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, says some of the hardest hit areas could require 7 inches or more of rain to end the dry spell. No such weather pattern is in sight, he said.

"There is an old saying that droughts end in floods," Douty told USA TODAY. "Hopefully that's not the case here, but it will take a lot of rain."

Ideally, the drought will be ended by a damp, dreary weather pattern of two weeks or more with storms rolling in one behind the other. That would represent a big change in cities such as Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Trenton, New Jersey, where records were broken for a number of days without appreciable rain before showers reached the region Sunday.

"Philadelphia went 42 days; the old record was 29 days," Douty said. "They not only broke the record, they smashed it."

Wildfires burn from coast-to-coast:Red flag warnings issued for Northeast

Three New England states blanketed under red flag warning

In Connecticut, Hartford has seen only 12% of its normal rainfall since the start of September, Douty said. Gov. Ned Lamont has declared a Stage 2 Drought Advisory across the state. An emergency burn ban in effect for all Connecticut state parks, forests and wildlife management areas prohibits use of all outdoor grills, firepits, campfires and any outdoor flames.

The weather service in Boston issued red flag warnings for all of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, citing the "combination new fires, dry weather and gusty northwest winds 15 to 25 mph Tuesday." The weather service urged residents of those states to keep vehicles off of dry grass and to obey burn bans.

Stubborn high pressure system blamed

The extraordinary weather system has brought wildfires to New York City parks and a haze that hung over much of the city for days. A system could bring rain to some areas Thursday, but the next week shows no signs of the kind of weather required to snap the dry spell, Douty said.

Douty blamed a strong high pressure system lingering for weeks that has crushed the occasional storm systems trying to sweep down from Canada. The dry atmosphere and dry ground combine to stifle weak weather systems trying to break through, Douty said. There appears to be no phenomenon such as El Niño or La Niña or even climate change to blame, he said.

"This I would assume is more of a short-term phenomenon," he said. "The pattern will flip and another month from now everyone will be complaining that it is raining every day.

The storm system Sunday hit many areas with a 0.10 to a half-inch of rain. Firefighters consider 0.10 inches a "wetting rain," the minimum necessary to combat spreading wildfires. The dousing was desperately needed in parts of New York and New Jersey, where at least 10 wildfires have burned across parched woodland and grassy areas.

"The streak of consecutive days with no measurable precip has finally ended!" the National Weather Service in Mount Holly reported in a social media post. "This will NOT have any meaningful impact on the drought, but should briefly quell the extreme fire danger."

Southern California fire burns homes:'We suffered great damage'

What is a red flag warning?

Red flag warnings issued by the National Weather Service mean a combination of warm temperatures, very low humidity and strong winds are expected to increase the risk of fire danger. The warnings come with strict criteria − relative humidity of 15% or less and wind gusts of 25 mph or more for three hours over a 12 hour period.

The International Association of Fire Chiefs warns that during a red flag warning residents should follow local fire department guidance nd maintain a "heightened awareness" of anything that can generate a spark or flame.

The group's recommendations include not driving on dry grass, extinguishing outdoor fires properly and never leaving them unattended. Soak ashes and charcoal in water and dispose of them in a metal can − they can sometimes reignite days after a fire or BBQ is extinguished. And report unattended outdoor fires immediately to 911.

A 2024 milestone:2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest on record

Heat also setting records

Since early this year, climate scientists have been saying 2024 was likely to be the warmest year on record. Ten months in, it's now "virtually certain," the Copernicus Climate Change Service has announced. This year is also virtually certain to be the first full year where global average temperatures were at least 2.7 degrees above preindustrial levels, said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Climate Change Service. That’s a target world leaders and climate scientists had hoped to stay below.

Average temperatures for the next two months would have to nearly match temperatures in the preindustrial period for this year not to be the warmest on record, the climate service said. The previous hottest year on record was last year.

− Dinah Voyles Pulver

(This story was updated to add new information.)