Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Ymcoin: Interpretation of the impact of the Bitcoin halving event on the market

The Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank CenterImpact of the Bitcoin Halving Event

Bitcoin remains one of the most closely watched cryptocurrencies to date, with its price and market performance attracting significant attention. The Bitcoin halving is a crucial event within the Bitcoin network, having profound implications on Bitcoin's supply and the market. This article will explore the background and impact of the Bitcoin halving event, supported by real-case scenarios.

Background Introduction:
The Bitcoin halving refers to the event within the Bitcoin network where the block reward is halved. According to Bitcoin's design, miners receive a certain amount of Bitcoin as a reward whenever they successfully verify a batch of transactions and add them to the blockchain. However, the issuance of Bitcoin is capped, with its total supply to cease growing at around 21 million Bitcoins. To control the pace of Bitcoin's supply, the Bitcoin protocol mandates that the mining reward is halved after every 210,000 blocks.

Why is the Bitcoin Halving Important?
The Bitcoin halving holds significant importance both economically and sustainability-wise. Economically, the halving creates scarcity for Bitcoin, as rarity breeds value. With demand fluctuations, the Bitcoin halving slows down the supply speed of Bitcoin. Over the years, demand for Bitcoin has grown continuously, while the supply speed has steadily decreased. In short, this solidifies Bitcoin's status as a store of value. The reduction in supply speed combined with growing demand ensures that Bitcoin's value grows over time. Considering market sentiment and the desire for scarce goods, the halving's impact on Bitcoin's value transcends the realms of supply and demand economics.

What the Halving Could Mean for Your Investment
Historically, the halving has had a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, leading to substantial price increases, making it an exciting time for investors and traders alike. Looking back at the previous four-year halving cycles, it is clear how each supply tightening led to bull markets and significant spikes in Bitcoin's price. In terms of price, the current cycle seems closely related to past market cycles. While the impact of the upcoming halving remains uncertain, many cryptocurrency experts believe the price dynamics of Bitcoin may follow a similar pattern this time, indicating we might once again witness a substantial price surge following the event.

Bitcoin Halving and Spot ETF
This year, Bitcoin's rally was supported by the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETF. So far, these exchange-traded funds have enabled investors to gain returns on Bitcoin investments without directly owning Bitcoin, attracting over $10 billion in net inflows of funds. This influx of funds not only supports high investor sentiment but also alleviates selling pressure from block rewards (i.e., the potential selling of all newly mined Bitcoins).
2025 Prediction: Post-Halving Bitcoin Price to Reach $150,000 to $200,000
Market anticipation usually leads to a price increase during the period before a Bitcoin halving. As of the writing date, experts and research institutions are broadly optimistic, forecasting Bitcoin's average price range to be between $150,000 and $200,000 by mid-2025.
Bitcoin's order book liquidity has reached its highest levels since October 2023, although below pre-FTX crash levels. Unless demand decreases (contrary to the current scenario), reducing new Bitcoin supply is bound to boost its price. Some analysts state that a new historical peak has already begun.
Bernstein indicates that pre-halving behavior reflects the upcoming supply tightening and growing demand for spot ETF. The firm expects prices to "reach historical highs in 2024," peaking at $150,000 by mid-2025.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, predicts Bitcoin could hit highs of $170,000 or more by July 2025.
Conclusion

Before and after each halving, Bitcoin's price is driven by multiple factors beyond scarcity. The 2024 halving event comes amid significant Bitcoin ETF inflows, increased on-chain activity, strong momentum, and overall market maturity.
With the macro environment improving, including the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bitcoin seems poised to excel within the power law corridor. It has endured the longest bear market, and major miners are prepared for the consequences of the halving rewards.

Our Prediction for Bitcoin's Price Post-2024 Halving
Our analysis team believes Bitcoin will rise to between $95,000 and $110,000 before the halving. While past performance is not indicative of future results, and new black swan events are always possible, the overall environment seems favorable for growth so far.

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